A year has passed since OpenAI quietly introduced ChatGPT as a “research preview,” a chatbot powered by a sophisticated large language model (LLM). These LLMs are a specific application of transformer neural networks, a technology initially presented in a 2017 Google paper.
ChatGPT offered a user-friendly interface to the underlying LLM, GPT-3.5, and became the fastest-growing consumer technology in history, attracting over a million users within just five days of its launch. Today, there are hundreds of millions of ChatGPT users, and various other similar bots built on different LLMs from multiple companies have emerged. One of the latest additions is Amazon Q, a chatbot tailored for business purposes.
These technological advancements have the potential to reshape creative and knowledge work profoundly. For instance, a recent MIT study focused on tasks such as crafting cover letters, composing sensitive emails, and conducting cost-benefit analyses. The study demonstrated that using ChatGPT led to a 40% reduction in the time required to complete these tasks and an 18% improvement in output quality, as evaluated by independent assessors.
Comparisons to foundational discoveries like electricity and fire are apt because AI, like these innovations, has the power to revolutionize nearly every facet of our lives. It can alter how we work, communicate, and address complex challenges, much like electricity transformed industries, and fire changed early human societies.
Racing toward the future, consulting firm McKinsey has estimated that generative AI will contribute over $4 trillion annually to the global economy. Consequently, tech giants like Microsoft and Google are aggressively pursuing opportunities in this market.
Debates about the impact and safety of AI technology have been ongoing since the advent of ChatGPT. These debates, spanning from the U.S. Congress to the historic Bletchley Park (formerly a hub for British code-breaking during World War II), essentially fall into two perspectives: AI “accelerationists” and “doomers.”
Accelerationists advocate for rapid AI development, highlighting its immense potential benefits, while “doomers” advocate for a cautious approach that emphasizes the potential risks associated with unchecked AI development. These debates have prompted significant actions in AI regulation. While the EU AI Act has been in development for several years, the U.S. has taken a proactive stance with a comprehensive Executive Order on “Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence,” aiming for a balanced approach between unbridled development and rigorous oversight.
Countries worldwide are actively pursuing AI strategies in response to the LLM revolution. Russian President Vladimir Putin has recently announced plans for a new Russian AI development strategy to counter Western dominance in the field, albeit belatedly, as the U.S., China, the U.K., and others have already made substantial progress. Interestingly, Putin had famously stated in 2017 that the nation leading in AI “will be the ruler of the world.”
Reflecting on this whirlwind year in AI, one might have thought it reached its peak when OpenAI’s board of directors fired Sam Altman, the CEO. However, Altman returned within a week following an investor and employee revolt, and the board underwent changes.
Now, a new enigma surrounds OpenAI in the form of Project Q* (pronounced “Q-star”). Researchers assigned the name “Q” to represent the “Quartermaster,” a top-secret figure known for creating gadgets for the fictional James Bond character.
According to Reuters, the OpenAI board received a letter from researchers just days before Altman’s dismissal, warning that Q* could pose a threat to humanity. Speculation abounds regarding what Q* might entail, ranging from a groundbreaking neuro-symbolic architecture (a significant development) to a more modest yet impressive fusion of LLMs and existing techniques to outperform current state-of-the-art models.
An effective neuro-symbolic architecture of this scale does not currently exist but could enable AI to learn from minimal data while offering clearer explanations for its behavior and reasoning. Several organizations, including IBM, view this architecture as a pathway to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), the capacity for AI to process information at or beyond human capabilities, at machine speed.
Although Q* may not represent such a breakthrough, if it enters the market, it would mark another step toward AGI. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang has even suggested that AGI could be attainable within five years. Microsoft President Brad Smith, on the other hand, has a more conservative view, stating that achieving AGI, where computers surpass human capabilities, will likely take many years, if not decades.
The year ahead promises a wide range of emotions and developments. Breakthroughs like ChatGPT and projects like Q* have sparked optimism, concerns, regulatory discussions, competition, and speculative thoughts. The rapid advancements in AI over the past year are not just technological milestones but also a reflection of our unwavering pursuit of knowledge and mastery over our creations.
As we look ahead, the coming year is shaping up to be as exciting and unsettling as the last, depending on how effectively we channel our energy and guidance in this transformative field.